Wednesday, October 24, 2012

COP - Concept of Price Rhythm - Marcus Tay

More seminar update at

1.       Trades only emini Russell 2000 futures
2.       Aim for only 1 point profit target per trade (1 pt = USD100), profit target of 1 pt entered by default once a trade is initiated, but stop loss is placed manually (usually above resistences or below support)
3.       Risk:reward ratio is typically around 1:3 ( but not fixed as stop loss is dependent on support/resistence levels).
4.       Trade only 2 hrs per night (from 9:30-11:30pm). 
5.       Usually can find between 6-8 trades durng this 2 hr period, each trade lasting an average of 5 – 15mins (but many more lasted only about 1 min+).
6.       Use Volume-based (not time based) charts, ie every bar represent, say 100 contracts. (VXcharts charting software is used, subscription is S$50/m)
7.       5 strategies will be taught but can concentrate on just 1 or 2 if preferred (some of his students trade only 1 strategy and is highly successful).
8.       Accuracy is around 70-80%
9.       Startup fund is USD3000.  Start with only 1 contract and aim for around USD200 profit a day (ie 2  profitable trades a night), however over a one mth (22 trading days) period, expect net profit to be only around $1,500 - $2,000 due to some losing days.  When become consistent, can slowly increase # of contracts traded. (he emphasized it shld be gradual, from 1 to 2, then after a while, 2 to 3 contracts etc).
10.   Course fee $3,500  (Day 1 & 2 on Nov 10-11), then a one day bootcamp session on 24 Nov. 
11.   Class size limited to 25.
12.   There will be live chats and he will also make trading calls (he didn’t say and we forgot to ask if there is a time limit to this hand-holding period).

Marcus “divulged” 2 of the strategies during the course.   
1.       The first (LSD strategy, a counter trend strategy) is based  on divergence (similar to stock divergence but he uses a different indicator (not sure what it is) to spot the divergence between the volume based chart  and the indicator.  There are also 2 volume-frames (compare to multiple “time-frames”  when we use time-based charts, eg daily and weekly charts) involved.  He may be looking at a certain volume based chart for the general direction to trade and then drill up to a lower volume chart to look for divergence to enter the trade. Once entered, decide on the stop loss (based on resistence/supports) while target is pre-fixed at 1 point.
2.       The 2nd strategy is trend following.  He uses some strange indicator and only take a short trade if that indicator is red, long trade if that indicator is blue.. (a bit like black box..?? ).


Concept Of Price Multiple Trading Signals past weeks
Tuesday 18 Aug : 11 good signals out of 11 = 100%
Monday 17 Aug :  8 good signals out of 9 = 89%
Thursday 13 Aug : 8 good signals out of 9 = 89%
Wednesday 12 Aug : 20 good signals out of 23 = 87%
Monday 10 Aug :  13 good signals out of 16 = 81%
Thursday 6 Aug : 10 good signals out of 11 = 91%
Wednesday 5 Aug : 10 good signals out of 12 = 83%
Tuesday 4 Aug : 8 good signals out of 9 = 89%
Monday 3 Aug :  9 good signals out of 9 = 100%
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Some feedback from student:
Joined the course 3 or 4 years back. So what I know may be outdated.

He had about 5 different ways of trading the US russell futures.

Infinity Futures, via the Infinity AT software.

Charting software
Initially used Ensign.
This had some display and latency issues. Later they partnered with a developer and transited to their own proprietary software. The monthly subscription fees were comparable for both.

The charts used are volume based. This means a bar is completed after a particular volume is reached. This is different from most other techniques that use time based charts. This also means you cannot find free charting and data solutions.

They had a realtime chat group that allows the instructors to post images such as a potential trade coming up.

I traded for 1.5 years. On both demo and live accounts, I wasn't profitable.

I ruled out discipline issues

I built up the routines to wake up at night to trade, self-talk to prepare for the intensity ahead, review after each session and practice off-line.

I am pretty sure 90% of my class don't do that. The impatient ones never practiced demo and lost money in live. The lazy ones didn't even sign up with the US broker after the short trial period. I persisted for 1.5 years. It was extremely tiring.

Issues faced

1) My charts and the instructors charts look different.

It is made known during the course that it is normal, and everyone should trade based on what they see on their screens. The trading edge should still exist.

But this makes it hard to compare with the instructor's charts.

2) Can't backtest and practice properly

The trading style is very short term. Trades usually last seconds. So you need to practice to improve your reaction time and do some mental calculations.

But the charts look slightly different each time I load the same period data. It's a frustrating, moving target. If my profitability improves as I practiced, I can't be sure it is due to my improved reaction or the series of trades presented.

It's like trying to improve at a 100m race with a track that randomly change in length every time you run.

Why it didn't work for me

The ultimate issue is that I cannot tell what went wrong because there is no objective reference. Hence I can't even proof to myself the edge is present.

1 comment:

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